Kuantile
Portfolio Stress Testing: What If You Held This Portfolio Through 2008?
The most honest question in risk measurement is: "What does this portfolio do when the bad day comes?" VaR gives you a statistical boundary; a stress test replays history. Kuantile runs your portfolio through 14 real crisis windows — from the 2008 global crisis to the 2025 tariff shock — and prices each scenario's bill for your current holdings in TRY.
The method: replaying history with today's weights
The logic is simple: take the daily returns inside a crisis window (say 20 February – 23 March 2020, the Covid crash), apply them to your current portfolio weights, and compound the period's impact. The "this stock didn't exist back then" problem is handled transparently: assets with no data in the window are excluded and listed clearly next to the result.
Why Türkiye-specific scenarios matter
Global tools usually test only S&P 500 crises. For a TRY-based portfolio, the 2018 Brunson crisis, the 2021 pre-KKM currency shock or the 2023 post-election adjustment are as instructive as Lehman — and in those windows, foreign-currency assets rise in TRY terms. Indeed, most mixed portfolios show a positive result for the "2021 currency crisis" scenario: the lira shock inflated the TRY value of their dollar assets. That is why your stress-test chart mixes red and blue bars; which crisis hurts you reveals your portfolio's character.
Custom simulation: pick your own window
If the preset scenarios aren't enough, Kuantile lets you choose any date range: "If I had entered 2022 with this portfolio, where would I have ended the year?" — answered with a day-by-day value curve that also visualises drawdown depth and recovery time.
How to read a stress test
- Look at your worst scenario: if that number became real, would you sleep? If not, your risk budget is exceeded.
- Look at the spread across scenarios: losing equally hard in every crisis means your portfolio depends on a single factor — usually a single country.
- Look at the excluded list: recent IPOs and young coins can't be tested in old scenarios; their tail risk is invisible in the table. Decide with that in mind.
The past is not the future; but it is the only realistic stage on which to rehearse for future crises.
Stress-test your portfolio →